Report offers key insights into global ecological challenges 

The annual Ecological Threat Report was recently launched by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). The report analyses ecological threats globally and assesses the countries and subnational areas most at risk from conflict, civil unrest, and displacement caused by ecological degradation and climate-related events.

Image: jkomp | Freepik 

The main finding from the ETR is that without concerted action, current levels of ecological degradation will worsen, intensifying existing conflicts and becoming a catalyst for new conflicts, thereby resulting in increases in forced migration.

The number of countries suffering from severe ecological threats and low societal resilience has risen by three to 30 in the last year. These 'hotspot' countries are home to 1,100 million people, an increase of 332 million. The recent pressures on global food prices have placed additional demands on countries already suffering from food insecurity.

Three new countries have emerged as 'hotspots'. They are Niger, Ethiopia, and Myanmar, all of which have entered a detrimental cycle of increasing ecological threats, lower societal resilience, and escalating conflict. Each has faced famine and violence in the last 12 months: Ethiopia's ongoing conflict, Niger's recent military coup, and Myanmar's violence following its coup in 2021.

Ecological degradation and conflict are cyclical, whereby the degradation of resources leads to conflict, while conflict leads to the degradation of resources. Ecological degradation has the biggest influence on conflict in regions like the Sahel, which face major deficiencies in governance, rule of law, high levels of poverty, and short-term climatic variations.

Conflicts often spillover from one country into another, affecting the region and beyond. Currently, there are over 108 million people who are displaced, up by 24 per cent since 2020. Estimates show that 30 per cent of all displacements move more than 500 kilometres beyond their home country, with a significant percentage of illegal entries in Europe originating from ecologically threatened and conflict-ridden countries. A significant percentage of Europe's illegal entries, notably 29 per cent from Syria and nine percent from Afghanistan, are from hotspot countries.

Based on current trends and without substantial efforts to reverse them, IEP estimates show that by 2050, 2,800 million people will reside in countries facing severe ecological threats, compared to 1,800 million in 2023.
 

Conflict, food, and water stress

Food insecurity is connected to water stress. The ETR estimates that a 25 per cent rise in food insecurity increases conflict risk by 36 per cent, and similarly, a 25 per cent increase in water risk escalates the likelihood of conflict by 18 per cent. Areas with a history of conflict and weak institutions are the most vulnerable.

Global food prices have increased by 33 per cent since 2016, placing further stress on the most vulnerable. Currently, 42 countries face severe food insecurity, with almost four billion people living in areas with high or severe food insecurity. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa.

Two billion people currently live in countries without access to safe drinking water. By 2040, the MENA region will mirror sub-Saharan Africa's water stress. Eight of the 12 countries in Russia and Eurasia currently face significant water challenges, exacerbated by low rainfall and their topology.

These trends are expected to worsen. It is likely that global warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century, making it harder to stay below 2°C. This is likely to exacerbate ecological degradation and the underlying drivers of conflict.
 

Natural disasters, population, and conflict

Climate change amplifies risks such as droughts, flooding, cyclones, and storms. Death rates are seven times higher in countries with low rather than high levels of resilience and peace. As such, in 2022, the UN Central Emergency Response Fund allocated 35 per cent of its budget to tackling natural disasters, up from 17 per cent a decade ago.

Increasing demographic pressures intensify ecological risks, straining public resources and societal resilience, especially in already vulnerable regions. By 2050, sub-Saharan Africa's population is predicted to rise to 2,200 million, an increase of over 60 per cent, which will dramatically increase pressure on existing food and water supplies. By 2050, the number of youth under 15 in the region will account for more than the entire population of Europe, highlighting the dynamic changes in global population distribution.

Steve Killelea, Founder and Executive Chairman of IEP says: "As we approach COP 28, the Ecological Threat Report provides a timely reminder of the need for leaders to act, invest, and build resilience for the future. The number of countries with severe ecological threats that lack the necessary societal resilience to deal with these challenges keeps on increasing, and climate change will only exacerbate these threats.

Countries with high levels of positive peace have the societal resilience to solve these challenges. In a world facing increased ecological degradation, conflict, and forced migration, world leaders need to invest in programmes that build the capabilities that create positive resilience and drive economic advancement."

 

Megacities: Rising Pollution and Population

The number of megacities is on the rise and is projected to increase from 33 to 50 by 2050. Over 267 million people currently live in the world's least peaceful megacities. These cities will experience rapid growth over the next 30 years but lack the financial resources to manage their expansion, resulting in increases in crime, poverty, traffic congestion, and pollution.

In Africa, both Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have multiple high-growth cities with low per capita incomes. Of the 50 projected megacities, 60 per cent are in countries in the bottom half of the Global Peace Index.

Over 60 per cent of refugees and 80 per cent of internally displaced people move to cities. By 2050, 70 per cent of the global population will live in cities, with the most growth occurring in countries with low per capita income and high levels of violence. Examples include Kinshasa, Lagos, Dhaka, and Karachi.
 

Conflict and the Green Economy

Countries that rely heavily on fossil fuels will struggle without assistance during the forthcoming green transition. For example, the DRC, Libya, Iraq, Angola, and Timor-Leste derive over 25 per cent of their GDP from fossil fuels. Confronted with major ecological challenges and low societal resilience, these countries may face a decline in GDP of up to 60 per cent between 2030 and 2040. 

To read the full report click here.

For all IEP reports click here.